July's numbers are in, and they show something I haven't been able to demonstrate this cleanly before.

In Muskoka, Parry Sound and Haliburton, waterfront properties outsold everything else. In Simcoe County, non-waterfront outsold waterfront by fifteen to one. Same month, same region, opposite markets — which is exactly why a single blended "cottage country average" tells you almost nothing useful.

Here's the full picture across all five regions and both segments, detached homes, July 1 to 31.

Source: The Habistat — Detached, July 1–31, 2026. No segment below 15 transactions this month.

Simcoe County

The volume engine of the region, and it isn't close. 483 non-waterfront detached sales at a $725,000 median, holding 97% of list with a 29-day median on market. Steady, deep, and functioning normally.

Waterfront here is the softest segment anywhere in the five regions. 32 sales at a $976,000 median, but 95% of list and a 33-day median — selling below asking by a full five points and taking longer than the in-town homes next door. If you own waterfront on the Simcoe side and you're planning a fall listing, price this one carefully.

Muskoka

Waterfront outsold in-town, 66 to 57 — and it moved faster, at a 26-day median against 32 days for non-waterfront. That's a genuinely active summer market at a $1,415,000 median.

The sale-to-list gap is worth noting though: waterfront settled at 95% of list while Muskoka's non-waterfront held 97% at a $630,000 median. Fast and slightly below asking at the same time — buyers are active, but they're negotiating.

Parry Sound

The value story of the month. Non-waterfront came in at a $475,000 median on 53 sales — the most affordable segment across all five regions — clearing at 96% of list in a 32-day median. That's an accessible market that's genuinely moving, not a market that's cheap because nothing sells.

Waterfront edged it on volume at 59 sales, $825,000 median, also 96% of list but slower at a 35-day median — the longest of any segment this month.

Kawartha Lakes

Like Simcoe, in-town dominates on volume: 92 non-waterfront sales against 22 waterfront. Non-waterfront median $592,500 at 96% of list, though the 36-day median is the slowest non-waterfront figure in the region.

Waterfront at a $750,500 median, 96% of list, 29-day median — moving quicker than the in-town stock despite the higher price point.

Haliburton

The fastest market of the five, at both ends. 22-day median for non-waterfront, 25 days for waterfront, with both segments holding 97% of list — the strongest pairing anywhere in the July data.

Waterfront also outsold non-waterfront here by the widest margin in the region: 46 sales to 18, at an $882,500 median against $595,000. Haliburton is, more than anywhere else we cover, a waterfront market with a town attached.

Two Numbers I Won't Put in a Headline

Worth explaining, because you'll see both used badly elsewhere.

The average sale price. Muskoka waterfront in July averaged $2,114,924. The median was $1,415,000. That's a gap of nearly $700,000 — the average sitting almost fifty per cent above the middle sale, because a handful of genuinely expensive properties closed in the same month. The median barely notices them. That's why every number I lead with is a median.

The percentage of homes selling above asking. This one gets quoted constantly as proof a market is hot, and it isn't. Kawartha Lakes waterfront posted the highest above-asking share of any segment this month — while simultaneously selling at 96% of list, meaning the typical property there went for less than it was listed at. Both facts are true at once, because a seller who prices deliberately low will often sell above asking and still leave money behind. Sale-to-list ratio, days on market and volume tell you what's actually happening. Above-asking share mostly tells you about pricing strategy.

Bill's Insider Take

The thing that jumps out at me in July isn't any single number — it's how differently the five regions behaved in the same thirty-one days. Haliburton cleared in three weeks. Parry Sound waterfront took five. Simcoe waterfront went below asking while Simcoe in-town held firm on nearly five hundred sales.

If you take one thing from this month: a regional headline is almost useless for making a decision about a specific property. What matters is your segment, in your area, at your price point — and those three things can point in completely different directions from the number in the news.

What About Your Property?

These are medians across whole regions. Your house has a condition, a street, a frontage and a price point, and any one of those can move it well off the regional figure in either direction.

If you'd like to know where yours actually sits — whether you're listing this fall or just keeping an eye on things — get in touch. Straight answer, no obligation.

Data source: The Habistat, Market Insights — Detached homes, July 1–31, 2026.
Lake Country Real Estate Team | eXp Realty | Serving Simcoe County, Muskoka, Parry Sound, Kawartha Lakes & Haliburton